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Tennessee: Temp trends on rise

By: Pam Sohn
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David Glenn

The heat is on in Tennessee.

Temperatures in six cities in the state, including Chattanooga, ranked in the top 25 of cities across the nation showing above-normal average temperatures.

“We’ve been breaking temperature records every year,” said Mike Propst, a hydrology and meteorology technician with the National Weather Service in Morristown, Tenn.

Globally, 2007 tied for the second-warmest year on record with 2005, but the United States registered only the 10th warmest year on the books.

A new report, “Feeling the Heat: Global Warming and Rising Temperatures in the United States,” found average 2007 temperatures rose 3 degrees or more above the 30-year average in six Tennessee cities — Chattanooga, Nashville, Memphis, Oak Ridge, Bristol and Knoxville.

Three Georgia cities — Athens, Atlanta and Augusta — made the top 50 with average temperatures at least 2 1/2 degrees above the normal average.

Tennessee and Georgia meteorologists confirm the numbers, but they aren’t as quick as the report’s author, Environment America, to pin the cause on global warming. Environment America is a federation of state-based, citizen-funded environmental advocacy organizations.

“There are more questions than answers right now,” said NewsChannel9 meteorologist David Glenn. “There has been a warming, but there are lots of theories as to why. Is it the solar cycle? Is it human induced? We’re not for sure yet.”

Whatever the reason, the Southeast has been particularly hard hit. Along with the six Tennessee cities, Huntsville and Birmingham in Alabama also ranked in the nation’s top 25 cities for above-normal average temperatures.

Other Southeastern cities in the top 25 included Tupelo, Miss.; Louisville, Ky.; Greensboro and Raleigh, N.C.; Greenville, S.C.; Roanoke, Va.; and Bethel, Ark.

Three Montana cities, two Nevada cities and a South Dakota city rounded out the top 25 heat-gainers, with Helena, Mont., showing the biggest jump — an average temperature 4.6 degrees above the city’s 30-year average norm.

According to weather records, average maximum temperatures — the peak mercury point on any given day — also show a warming trend.

Average peak temperatures rose 4 degrees Fahrenheit or more above normal in Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Nashville, as well as in Rapid City, S.D.; Helena; Louisville; and Greenville-Spartanburg, S.C., according to a ranking in the “Feeling the Heat” report.

As for the forecast, it’s more of the same in the coming winter, Mr. Propst said. In the Southeast, forecasters expect the next three months to be warmer than usual with near-normal precipitation.

“Quite often that means we’ll have a little more white stuff than usual,” he said.

Meanwhile, Chattanooga flirted with matching a record high Thursday but didn’t quite reach the 80-degree mark set in 2005.

The season’s shortened day allowed only enough time for the morning’s low mercury of 40 to climb to 75, according to weather records. The normal high for the day is 64, weather records show. However, forecasters said daytime temperatures will cool down to the 60s for the next week.

Mr. Glenn said he was not surprised by the Tennessee cities with higher-than-normal temperatures in 2007 — the warmest year on record locally.

“The reason for that, in my opinion, was that we were under a severe drought,” he said.

Warm, drier air pushes moist weather systems away, and the lack of cooling cloud cover and rain keeps the temperatures up, experts say.

Might the overall trend be induced by man-made climate change?

Mr. Glenn said he gets lots of calls asking that question.

“I sit right on the fence,” he said. “Time will tell us the answer.”

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